About this tool
The Wallace Initiative was set up to look at the potential impacts of climate change on as broad of range of biodiversity as possible. It brought together experts in climate impacts, climate model data and species modelling to look at the potential impacts of climate change on now close to 100,000 species. It has been used in a number of studies, see yyyy.
This tool, based on the CliMAS tool developed at James Cook University, provides interactive maps and regional reports to examine the future of species distributions and biodiversity around the world.
It summarises mapped biodiversity of almost 100,000 mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, plants and some insects (e.g., pollinators) within their suitable climate space projected by 21 different Global Climate Models (GCMs) at global warming levels of 1.5°, 2°, 2.7°, 3.2°, 4.5° and 6° C above pre-industrial. These temperatures span the Paris Accord goals (1.5° to 2°), the temperatures estimated to be reached under the current Paris Pledges (the Nationally Determined Commitments, 2.7° to 3.2° C), a typical Business as Usual Scenario (4.5° C) and an extreme scenario covering a case of high climate sensitivity or feedbacks (6° C). These are drawn from the AVOID scenario temperature distributions equivalent to the IPCC RCP scenarios of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Please see xxx for more details on the links between the temperatures and the scenarios. Detailed lists of potential climate space losses and gains for each species may be obtained in the reports section.
The map section of Wallace offers projected species distribution and biodiversity maps. Each map type is offered for the specific warming levels above, allowing or not allowing for species movements (dispersal) at realistic rates, and either the 10th, 50th or 90th percentile across the set of models used to project the future climate (to span some of the climate model uncertainty). See the Science page for more information.
In additon, easy comparisons can be made by loading two maps and switching between them, demonstrated in the animation below which compares current and future distributions of the Northern Blossom Bat.
All maps are downloadable for further analysis. See maps now »
Currently there is a general lack of engagement and knowledge transfer between professional researchers and the end-users of research (general public, conservation managers, decision-makers, etc.). This is reflected in a general lack of acceptance and acknowledgement by the public and stakeholders of the potential impacts of climate change, particularly on biodiversity.
Recently, researchers have begun to endeavour to make the results of their research public, however there is a scarcity of online tools that display species distribution data. The Wallace Initiative provides a tool that exposes data available with the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and its partners, the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), Tyndall Climate Change Centre, and the Tropical Data Hub in a visual and interactive way, to allow a broad range of end-users to explore the potential impacts of climate change on terrestrial vertebrate species in their region.
The Wallace Initiative team loves feedback. If you have any comments, please drop them into an email to email@example.com.
If you find this tool not behaving as expected, please take the time to let us know.